Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
