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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still