🔗 Share this article

Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.